Record global-local Omni thesis and oracle screen

results/easycom_oracle_information_4ep_2026-09-07/README.md

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+# EasyCom causal oracle-information screen (4 epochs, 2026-09-07)
+
+## Question
+
+Does perfectly timed, non-wearer speech activity contain information that is
+missing from the frozen Qwen2.5-Omni global state and the existing recent
+mixed-audio branch? If so, is the useful information aggregate activity or
+person-continuous activity?
+
+This is an information upper bound, not a deployable feature condition. The
+oracle inputs use EasyCom transcript-derived speech labels at or before the
+current cutoff; no future wearer target, transcript text, target-of-speech, or
+close-microphone signal is exposed.
+
+## Protocol and provenance
+
+- Dataset: EasyCom using the EgoSpeak target and split.
+- Model development: Sessions 4--11 for training and Session 12 for checkpoint
+  selection and this screen. Sessions 1--3 were not evaluated.
+- Seed: 0 only; three-seed confirmation is pending.
+- Training: 4 epochs, LSTR-MCE activity loss, frozen Qwen2.5-Omni-3B global
+  states, `concat-mlp` layer fusion, and the same recent local-audio branch.
+- Evaluation: `causal_valid_only`; AP/mAP values below are percentages.
+- Oracle history: 10 samples at 5 Hz (2 seconds). The delayed control shifts
+  person activity by 5 samples (1 second).
+- Target alignment: EgoSpeak right-edge sampling,
+  `Start_Frame <= 4*(t+1) < End_Frame`; all twelve sessions must have zero
+  transcript/target mismatch before any sidecar is written.
+- Raw run directory on the L20 host:
+  `results/easycom_oracle_information_4ep/`.
+
+## Results
+
+| Condition | 0.2-s mAP | BG AP | wearer AP | others AP | 10-horizon mean mAP |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| audio | 72.57922 | 59.84555 | 66.82464 | 91.06747 | 58.77336 |
+| visibility-only | 71.95065 | 57.85640 | 66.73511 | 91.26045 | 58.86491 |
+| delayed | 72.02265 | 57.86302 | 66.88550 | 91.31943 | 58.89590 |
+| aggregate-visible | **79.54571** | **69.79448** | **72.65278** | **96.18987** | **61.68383** |
+| per-person | 78.80474 | 69.74061 | 71.00535 | 95.66825 | 61.10890 |
+| shuffled-id | 78.86300 | 68.70055 | 71.85510 | 96.03333 | 61.18615 |
+
+Important paired descriptive deltas for this single seed:
+
+- `aggregate-visible - audio`: +6.96649 at 0.2 seconds and +2.91047 mean mAP.
+- `aggregate-visible - delayed`: +7.52306 at 0.2 seconds and +2.78793 mean mAP.
+- `aggregate-visible - per-person`: +0.74097 at 0.2 seconds and +0.57493 mean mAP.
+- `per-person - shuffled-id`: -0.05826 at 0.2 seconds and -0.07725 mean mAP.
+- `visibility-only - audio`: -0.62857 at 0.2 seconds and +0.09155 mean mAP.
+
+## Interpretation
+
+The positive result is an information-value result: accurately aligned current
+activity from visible non-wearers supplies substantial information beyond the
+frozen global Omni state and recent mixed audio. The visibility-only and
+one-second-delayed controls are close to the audio baseline, so the gain is
+not explained by the number of slots, extra parameters, or stale activity.
+
+The person-continuity hypothesis is not supported by this run. Aggregate
+visible activity is stronger than the person-resolved representation, and
+independently shuffling historical activity across current person slots does
+not hurt. The present dense aggregate-`others` objective can exploit per-lag
+activity counts without identifying who produced them, and the simpler
+aggregate representation is also easier for the head to consume. Therefore
+this result cannot support claims of speaker identity, speaker continuity,
+addressee understanding, or other-to-other interaction understanding.
+
+The defensible method hypothesis is now **global Omni context plus causal local
+audiovisual floor evidence organized around visible people**. A learned causal
+active-speaker/floor branch should first attempt to recover the aggregate
+oracle gain. Anonymous track continuity becomes part of the selected method
+only if correct tracks beat no-ID, broken-continuity, time-shifted, and
+capacity-matched controls and improve the frozen event protocol. Otherwise the
+paper must use the simpler global-plus-local-floor-evidence formulation.
+
+## Required follow-up
+
+1. Repeat the six conditions with seeds 1 and 2 on Session 12.
+2. Do not use Sessions 1--3 until the architecture and event protocol are
+   frozen.
+3. Train a causal learned visible-person activity estimator from deployable
+   audio/video inputs; report how much of the oracle gap it recovers.
+4. Freeze competing-risk-censored entry/yield evaluation. Dense mAP does not
+   demonstrate fewer erroneous agent entries.
+5. Test person continuity only with matched no-ID/broken-track controls; stop
+   the track claim if they do not separate.

results/easycom_oracle_information_4ep_2026-09-07/metrics.csv

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+condition,seed,split,protocol,map_0p2,bg_ap_0p2,wearer_ap_0p2,others_ap_0p2,mean_map
+audio,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,72.57922,59.84555,66.82464,91.06747,58.77336
+visibility-only,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,71.95065,57.85640,66.73511,91.26045,58.86491
+delayed,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,72.02265,57.86302,66.88550,91.31943,58.89590
+aggregate-visible,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,79.54571,69.79448,72.65278,96.18987,61.68383
+per-person,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,78.80474,69.74061,71.00535,95.66825,61.10890
+shuffled-id,0,Session_12,causal_valid_only,78.86300,68.70055,71.85510,96.03333,61.18615

results/easycom_oracle_information_4ep_2026-09-07/summary.json

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+{
+  "record": "easycom_oracle_information_4ep_2026-09-07",
+  "status": "preliminary_single_seed_development_screen",
+  "dataset": "easycom",
+  "train_sessions": [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11],
+  "development_sessions": [12],
+  "test_sessions_used": [],
+  "seed": 0,
+  "epochs": 4,
+  "protocol": "causal_valid_only",
+  "units": "percentage_points",
+  "oracle_history_steps": 10,
+  "oracle_history_seconds": 2.0,
+  "delay_steps": 5,
+  "delay_seconds": 1.0,
+  "target_sampling_policy": "egospeak-right-edge-start-inclusive-end-exclusive",
+  "metrics": {
+    "audio": [72.57922, 59.84555, 66.82464, 91.06747, 58.77336],
+    "visibility-only": [71.95065, 57.85640, 66.73511, 91.26045, 58.86491],
+    "delayed": [72.02265, 57.86302, 66.88550, 91.31943, 58.89590],
+    "aggregate-visible": [79.54571, 69.79448, 72.65278, 96.18987, 61.68383],
+    "per-person": [78.80474, 69.74061, 71.00535, 95.66825, 61.10890],
+    "shuffled-id": [78.86300, 68.70055, 71.85510, 96.03333, 61.18615]
+  },
+  "metric_order": [
+    "map_0p2",
+    "bg_ap_0p2",
+    "wearer_ap_0p2",
+    "others_ap_0p2",
+    "mean_map"
+  ],
+  "descriptive_deltas": {
+    "aggregate-visible_minus_audio": [6.96649, 9.94893, 5.82814, 5.12240, 2.91047],
+    "aggregate-visible_minus_delayed": [7.52306, 11.93146, 5.76728, 4.87044, 2.78793],
+    "aggregate-visible_minus_per-person": [0.74097, 0.05387, 1.64743, 0.52162, 0.57493],
+    "per-person_minus_shuffled-id": [-0.05826, 1.04006, -0.84975, -0.36508, -0.07725]
+  },
+  "interpretation": {
+    "supported": "timely visible-other aggregate activity has information value beyond global Omni plus recent mixed audio",
+    "not_supported": "person identity or track continuity provides additional value",
+    "restriction": "oracle inputs are analysis-only ground-truth current/past speech activity"
+  }
+}